Saturday, March 10, 2018

Post-Independence Successes and Failures


Author: Ryan Hatano

Amid a sea of Estelada flags, crowds in the historic Plaça de Catalunya gathered to celebrate Catalonia’s declaration of independence last October.  Their jubilation, however, was short lived as within a matter of days, the Spanish Constitutional Court would nullify the declaration. Ultimately, support for independence would wane, and much like Scotland, secession would be placed on the back burner. 

While hopes for Catalan independence may have faded, many other countries across the globe harbor their own separatist movements. The achievement of independence, however, represents the start, not the end, of a country’s history. How have the countries who have actually won their independence fared? When given control over their own affairs, have the new countries of Slovakia, Montenegro, and South Sudan achieved their original goals?

There are a multitude of justifications, ranging from readdressment of historical grievances, cultural protection, and regionalism, for a region to seek independent. Likewise, adherence to domestic or international laws and norms, protection of minority rights, or loss of cultural identity, are all reasons why countries oppose secessionist movement. A successful country must This article will not address these concerns, instead focusing on purely economic metrics of success. Did the post-independence environments allow countries to create better institutions, improve opportunities and access to foreign organizations and markets, and ultimately improve the living standards of their people?

Slovakia


Photo: Capx.co

The amiable “Velvet Divorce” in 1993 saw Slovakia break away from the Czech Republic. Just as their histories were intertwined throughout the 20th century, there post-communist histories have followed similar trajectories. Both nations achieved success throughout the 2000s, with high rates of GDP growth and successful integration into the European Economy. The Czech Republic joined NATO in 1999, and Slovakia followed them in 2004. The Czech Republic and Slovakia joined the European Union together in 2004. The nations share similar Institutional qualities as well, with the Czech Republic ranking 30th, according to the World Bank, at the ease of doing business, while Slovakia ranks right behind them at rank 39. Both countries also share similar scores for their Corruption Perceptions Index, according to Transparency international. Slovakia started out more corrupt than the Czech Republic, by over the past 20 years they have more or less converged.


Slovakia has followed the Czech Republic, both in international diplomacy and the establishment of similar institutional quality. A major difference between the two nations is Slovakia adopting the Euro as its currency, while the Czech Republic decided to stick with the koruna. The economic performances of the two countries, however, are quite similar. This suggests the dissolution of Czechoslovakia did not drastically alter the economic futures of either of those countries. Both the Czech Republic and Slovakia were successful apart, but they likely would have been successful had they stayed together as Czechoslovakia. 


Montenegro



Photo: EuropeanWesterBalkans.com

After a hotly contest referendum, Montenegro choose to forge their own destiny, separating from Serbia in 2006.  Montenegro oriented themselves closer to Western Europe, while Serbia remained firmly under the influence of Russia. Montenegro joined NATO in 2017 and is on track to join the European Union. Serbia, on the other hand, remains diplomatically bogged down by Kosovo, and is well behind Montenegro on the path to European Union Membership. Montenegro has also unilaterally adopted the Euro as its currency, despite not being an European Union country yet. Montenegro ranks equal to Serbia according to the ease of doing business, at 42 and 43 respectively. Montenegro, has, however, achieved better scoring according the Corruption Perception Index. Despite starting at similar levels following independence, Montenegro consistently ranks ahead of Serbia according to the Corruption Perception Index.
 

Montenegro, after leaving Serbia in 2006, saw faster GDP Growth, allowing them to enjoy a persistently higher level of per capita GDP level. Montenegro is well positioned in the future to continue their economic convergence with the rest of Europe by pursing policies of integration into the greater European economy while maintain their old ties to Serbia and Russia. Independence provided an opportunity for the country to battle corruption and pursue new provide themselves access to new markets. 


South Sudan

 
Photo: NewVision.com

Since Sudan’s inception, there was a cultural and economic conflict between the north and the south.
In a 2011 referendum lauded by international observers, South Sudan voted for independence. The country, after years of domination from the north, now had an opportunity to develop their own wealth from natural resources. This was the perfect opportunity to leave a corruption ridden, pariah nation. Sudan was under intentional sanctions for their conduct in Darfur, and its 170 in the world for the ease of doing business. South Sudan would also have a chance to move away from the Arab centric Sudanese foreign policy and toward integration with East and Central Africa. Trade with stable, successful Kenya and Tanzania would offer a boon to the economy. After the independence vote, while international attention was drawn elsewhere, South Sudan fell into political and tribal conflicts.  Independence did not bring ruining their opportunity for a fresh start. The unity government of President Salva Kirr Mayardiit and Vice President Riek Machar collapsed in 2013, and the country fell into Civil War. Relationships with Sudan frayed, damaging shared oil revenue and infrastructure projects. Rather than transitioning to democracy and government transparency, warlords kept the country under authoritarian rule. In 2017, South Sudan ranks 187 in the ease of doing business, even worse than Sudan. South Sudan also is the second most corrupt country in the world, ranking only ahead of Somalia. The civil war also delayed integration into East African Community, limiting access to trade.


South Sudanese GDP per capita is now lower than at independence. Institutions conducive to economic growth did not form. Internal political turmoil hindered foreign policy, delaying successful integration into East Africa. There is hope, however, as South Sudanese peace agreement will hopefully stem the violence and allow good governance to emerge. South Sudan joined the East African Community in 2017, and will soon begin to receive investment from Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, and Rwanda.  

References:
https://capx.co/what-scotland-can-learn-from-the-velvet-divorce/
https://europeanwesternbalkans.com/2016/05/31/montenegros-decade-of-independence-tracing-a-state-back-to-its-origins/
https://www.newvision.co.ug/new_vision/news/1430287/independence-won-south-sudans-freedom-peril
https://au.int/en/recs/eac
https://www.transparency.org/research/cpi/cpi_2006/0
http://www.worldbank.org/


3 comments:

  1. Its a very inetresting topic . I can completely relate my country(Bangladesh) with the topic. Despite all the post independence social and economical problem,Bangladesh is making progress in some major economic sectors.

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  2. Good read. Thoughtful and well written article.
    Although the whole narrative in Montenegro part felt like it was a positive example of independence, however numbers looked relatively similar to Serbia. Are there more positive examples of independence you can think of? And also related to this topic it would be interesting to know how well is Estonia doing since getting independence.

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    Replies
    1. While the numbers are similar, the gap between Serbia and Montenegro is nearly $1,500, which is fairly significant considering they were equal only ten years ago. Montenegro has also positioned themselves well for future growth, so this gap may grow over time.

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